中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）

探究我国道路交通安全水平的时空演化特征及其影响因素，对推进道路交通安全工作提质增效和高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2006—2021年我国31个省级行政区面板数据(不包括港澳台地区数据),运用投影寻踪模型、核密度估计、Moran’s I指数探析我国道路交通安全水平时空演变特征，并利用地理探测器模型研究影响道路交通安全水平演化的主要因素。结果表明：(1)时间上，2006—2021年，我国道路交通安全水平总体呈波动上升趋势，交通安全水平指数由2006年的0.545上升到2021年的2.495,年均增长为10.67%。(2)空间上，我国各个省级区域道路交通安全水平存在差异，总体呈“东-中-西”递减的格局；道路交通安全水平的全局Moran’s I指数显著为正，表明在空间上具有显著的正向相关性。(3)影响因素上，我国道路交通安全的时空演化是多因素交互作用的结果，公路里程、民用汽车拥有量和人均受教育年限等是道路交通安全水平演化的重要驱动因素。最后，根据研究结论，提出针对性的对策建议，期望为我国道路交通安全工作高质量发展提供参考。

Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and its factors that influence the level of road traffic safety in China is of great significance for improving quality and efficiency and achieving high-quality road traffic safety development. Based on the panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China(excluding the data of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2006 to 2021, the projection pursuit model, kernel density estimation model, and Moran's I index are used to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the road traffic safety level in China, and then the geographical detector model is used to study the main influencing factors of its evolution of the road traffic safety level. The results show that:(1) From the perspective of time, the overall level of road traffic safety in China has showed a fluctuating upward trend from 0.545 in 2006 to 2.495 in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 10.67%.(2) From the perspective of space, there are differences in the level of road traffic safety across provincial regions, and the overall pattern shows a decreasing gradient from east to central to west. The Global Moran's I index is significantly positive, indicating a significant positive spatial correlation.(3) From the perspective of influencing factors, the spatial and temporal evolution of road traffic safety in China is the result of the interaction of multiple factors, that highway mileage, civilian vehicle population, and per capita education years are the important driving factors. Finally, based on the research conclusions, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, aiming to provide reference for the high-quality development of the traffic safety work in China.