中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）

安全防范系统效能评估是提升系统运行质量与优化资源配置的关键环节。针对传统方法在指标层次划分模糊、资源—效能关系表达不清晰等问题，引入分层模糊Petri网，结合模糊变迁规则，实现模糊状态的逐层传播与动态推理，并采用层次分析法与熵权法的融合赋权策略，构建了安全防范系统效能评估的分层模糊Petri网模型。基于该模型，开展了对某关键基础设施单位的效能评估与结果对比。评估结果显示，运行保障为当前系统中最薄弱的效能，其对应的效能输出最低，为0.776 7。推理结果贴近实际评估结果，有助于识别效能薄弱环节，并为资源配置优化提供方法支持与决策参考。

The effectiveness evaluation of physical protection systems constitutes a critical component in enhancing system operational quality and optimizing resource allocation. In response to the limitations of traditional methods, such as ambiguous indicator hierarchies and unclear representation of resource-efficiency relationships, a Hierarchical Fuzzy Petri Net is introduced. By integrating fuzzy transition rules, the model enables the hierarchical propagation and dynamic inference of fuzzy states. Furthermore, a combined weighting strategy based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Entropy Weight Method is employed to construct a Hierarchical Fuzzy Petri Net model for evaluating the effectiveness of physical protection systems. Based on the proposed model, an evaluation and comparative analysis is conducted on a key critical infrastructure unit. The results indicate that operational support represents the weakest component in the current system, with the lowest effectiveness output of 0.776 7. The reasoning outcomes are closely aligned with actual evaluations, thereby supporting the identification of performance bottlenecks and providing methodological guidance and decision-making references for resource optimization.